The Economic Impact of Tourism Based on the
Horseshoe Crab-Shorebird Migration in New Jersey

For millennia, horseshoe crabs and shorebirds have made an annual pilgrimage to the beaches of Delaware Bay. The spectacle of tens of thousands of Red Knots and Ruddy Turnstones feeding greedily on horseshoe crab eggs is perhaps the best-known gathering of such disparate animals in the world. Today, thousands of wildlife watchers consider the Bayshore a wildlife-viewing Mecca, and visit it each May to witness the horseshoe crab spawning/migratory shorebird phenomena. These visitors represent an enormous, yet under recognized, economic resource for Bayshore and New Jersey businesses and communities. Understanding the magnitude of this economic impact, as well as the demographics and other characteristics of this visiting population, are critical steps in developing any management approach for this resource or long-term economic development plan for the region.

To determine the economic impact of tourists visiting New Jersey’s Delaware Bayshore during the horseshoe crab/shorebird spectacle, wildlife watchers were surveyed in an effort to better understand their viewing behaviors and expenditures. Because of the concerns cited by wildlife watchers regarding the potential over-harvesting of horseshoe crabs, survey efforts were concentrated on this specific event (the shorebird migration spectacle) and recreation (birding).

Surveys were mailed to 1,034 persons from three different mailing lists gathered from two New Jersey wildlife organizations as well as wildlife viewers in the State: New Jersey Audubon Society (NJAS), Cape May Bird Observatory (CMBO), and intercepts of New Jersey Bayshore wildlife viewers. Of the 1,034 surveys mailed, 602 were returned in a usable form for a 58% raw response rate. The discarding of non-deliverables yielded an effective return rate of 63%. Salant and Dillman (1994) state, "…anything under 60-70 percent [effective return rate] should be a red flag – [with an acceptable response rate being] roughly 60 percent for a general-public mail survey, about 70 percent for a special-population telephone survey." The effective response rate of 62.59% for this general population mail survey reduced the need for a random telephone check of non-respondents to determine a no-response bias.

The survey solicited information about the demographics, expenditures, motivations, and satisfaction rates of birders who visited the Delaware Bay Study Area (DBSA). In addition, the study probed these recreationists for their level of commitment to conserving wildlife habitat along New Jersey’s Delaware Bay (which includes Cape May). Finally, the survey attempted to determine the value birders placed on the Delaware Bay and its wildlife resources.

Respondents had been birding for an average of 18.28 years, and had taken 13.61 birding trips comprising 46.12 days during the previous year. New Jersey birders traveled frequently and widely within their own state, and spent about as many days birding within New Jersey (outside their home county) as they did out-of-state. Delaware Bay wildlife watchers resembled similar recreationists studied in other parts of the country regarding average age (55), gender (balanced, slight majority female), and years of formal education (over 16 years), but exceeded other studies in terms of average income. While most of our studies have found household incomes to be over $50,000, the average household income for Delaware Bay birders exceeded $80,000, with over half the respondents’ income exceeding $60,000.

Delaware Bay visitors appeared to be more active and committed birders than general nature enthusiasts. More than half (59.59%) considered themselves to be "active birders." The respondents’ investment in birding equipment, averaging $2,821.63 (as measured by replacement cost), supported this impression of their level of commitment.

This survey revealed that a nonresident party visiting Delaware Bay during the horseshoe crab/shorebird migration season consisted of 4.33 persons. During their most recent trip, these visitors stayed in the region for 3.82 days and 2.86 nights, spending an average of $463.46 in the DBSA, $522.61 per person in New Jersey ($667.12 overall) (Table 1). Birders interviewed for this survey were attracted to Delaware Bay throughout the year (not just during shorebird migration). The respondents averaged 8.23 days in the region during the most recent year, and spent a total of $1,437.28 on their visits to the Delaware Bay area (Table 2).

However, visitors place value upon their experiences beyond their direct expenditures. Therefore, in addition to the direct expenditures associated with their most recent trips, respondents were asked for an estimate of how much more they would have been willing to pay before deferring from taking their most recent trip. Delaware Bay birders indicated a willingness-to-pay an additional $259.49 ($67.93 per day) before they would have cancelled their most recent trip to see the horseshoe crab/shorebird migration spectacle.

In addition, indirect and induced effects expand the impacts of these direct expenditures. Walsh (1984) found that regional economic multipliers typically averaged 2.0 and generally ranged between 1.5 and 2.5 in the United States. Therefore, we have chosen to adopt Walsh’s multiplier of 2.0 as a reasonable compromise. Using Walsh’s multiplier average of 2.0, it is not unreasonable to expect that the induced and indirect effects of these direct expenditures in the DBSA during the horseshoe crab/shorebird migration season (seasonal) would expand the economic impacts of each survey respondent to $926.92 and $1,334.24 for the total trip (Table 1). This figure, known as Total Gross Output (TGO) expands to an annual value of $1,997 in the DBSA and $2,874.55 for overall spending (Table 2). The Total Gross Output, when combined with Consumer’s Surplus (willingness-to-pay), is known as the Gross Economic Value (GEV). The DBSA seasonal GEV (of each person visiting New Jersey’s Delaware Bayshore during the horseshoe crab/shorebird migration), therefore, is the combination of TGO ($926.92) and consumer’s surplus ($259.49), totaling $1,186.41 (Table 1).The GEV of the respondent’s overall expenditures is $1,593.73 seasonally (Table 1) and $3,433.61 per year (Table 2).

Applying the GEV to the survey respondent population as a whole, the 602 people surveyed represented $714,219 in economic impact to the Delaware Bay areaduring the horseshoe crab/migratory shorebird season (seasonal), and $959,425 overall (Table 1). However, this random sample is but a small part of a significantly larger population. For example, if we consider the percentage of NJAS respondents who visited Delaware Bay (75% of 161 respondents or 121 people; 35.3% of the total NJAS sample), an estimated maximum of 6,000 (rounded) NJAS members (of the total 17,000 members) traveled to the DBSA. This population alone, without adding additional CMBO or beach visitors, represents a seasonal GEV of $7,118,460 in the DBSA ($9,562,380 overall, Table 1)and an annual GEV of $15,336,368 to the DBSA ($20,601,672 overall) (Table 2). Based on interviews with local residents, community representatives, and agency personnel, the estimated total number of visitors to the intercept beaches in 1998 ranged between 6,000 and 10,000 visitors. Therefore the estimated GEV has been based upon a population range between 6,000 and 10,000, bringing the highest estimated seasonal GEV in the DBSA to $11,864,100 ($15,937,300 overall) (Table 1). The highest estimated annual GEV in the DBSA is $25,560,613 ($34,336,120 overall) (Table 2).

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Table 1: The Gross Economic Value of Respondents’ Seasonal Trips to the Delaware Bayshore, by area of impact)

Table 2: The Gross Economic Value of Respondents’ Annual Trips to the Delaware Bayshore, by area of impact)

An interesting and revealing relationship existed related to the degree to which the horseshoe crabs and migratory shorebird spectacle contributed to visitor satisfaction (only 6.6% ranked it as unimportant). Respondents stated that they would be willing to pay (in decreased annual household income) $212.45 for a management program to protect these resources. However, they also stated that they would be willing to tolerate no more than a 50.7% decline in horseshoe crabs and migrant shorebirds before they would cease visiting the DBSA. Their comments, frequency of visitation, and loyalty to the Bayshore indicated they would return each year, ever hoping to see horseshoe crabs return should they disappear. As long as this visitation continues, they bring an economic impact to the region, but one that is contingent on the continued existence of viable populations to support the migration spectacle.